Saturday, October 16, 2004

Polls, Shmolls

This reminds me of the definition of "is."

The Bear, Hindrocket at Powerline, Martin on the patio and Pejman all cite the latest Newsweek poll that has the candidates in a "dead heat," too close to call, with 48 percent of "all" voters preferring Bush to Kerry's 46 percent, and if they throw Nader's 1 percent over to Kerry, the difference becomes statistically insignificant.

It's not until the third paragraph (how many people actually read that far down?) that they admit among "likely" voters, the numbers are 50 percent Bush, 44 percent Kerry, 1 percent Nader.

Only in the lame-stream press is a 6-point lead a "dead heat." They do not mention the margin of error, but no poll I have ever seen had a 6-point margin of error. Only a poll where the difference lies within the margin of error can be "too close to call."

A dead heat? They wish.

Final thought: Until 2004, close only counted in horseshoes and hand grenades. Now, apparently, it counts when you're the political party that has an army of lawyers poised to challenge any result that's within the polling margin of error. Do you suppose they'll challenge if they WIN with a result within the margin of error? I'll give you 3 guesses, and the first 2 don't count.

Sunday update: The official Bush-Cheney campaign blog has a weekend pool round-up. All polls are of likely voters, all were taken between 10-13 and 10-16, and when averaged together, Bush has a 4 point lead.

So there. :)


2 comments:

EdWonk said...

I agree,"polls shmolls." Bush is holding a lead in the Electoral vote, and that is the one that counts. It's nice to see that he is leading in the horserace poll too.

Tony Iovino said...

Looking at the popular vote in a Presidential campaign is like looking at total yards gained in a football game, instead of the score. Interesting, but meaningless. If the Main Stream Media refuses to get past the horse race, at least I wish they would stop with the popularity contest, and start reporting the Electoral College more prominently.

 
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